EXAMPLE QUESTIONS TO ASK YOURSELF
You are dealer. There are six players and therefore six chips in the pot as ante. You hold ♥ J, ♠ 9, ♦ 8, ♣ 7, ♥ 6.
The first player checks, the second bets one chip, the third calls one and raises another, the fourth calls the two and raises two more, the fifth folds.
There are 13 chips in the pot, and to stay in it will cost you four chips to call. You have a chance of a flush straight. You would need to discard the Jack, and draw either a 10 or a 5. You need to bear the following in mind:
WHAT IS THE POT?
Should you be successful, you stand to win a pot which at the moment stands at 13 chips.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS AGAINST GETTING YOUR CARD?
Form the Table 9, you can see the odds are approximately 5 to 1 against you drawing a 10 or a 5 (one chance in six, or one-sixth).
WHAT DOES THIS MAKE YOUR EXPECTANCY?
So your expectancy is roughly one-sixth of 13, or just over two chips.
WHAT WOULD YOU NEED TO STAKE?
Your stake has to be four chips. This is bad bet, and you should fold.
Let us examine this further. There are still two things you do not know.
- How many players will stay in after the first betting interval? If all the other players still in equalized their stakes, so that four others as well as you raised their stakes to four chips, there would be a pot of 26 chips, making your expectancy a fraction better than your stake of four chips. But of course all course all expect the last to raise might fold.
- Whether you would win if you did fill your straight. Two other players have already raised, and could have good hands themselves. If you do not fill your straight, your best possible hand would be a pair of 9s, and it is pretty certain you will not win with that.
WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTANCY? When deciding how to bet, you need to weigh the odds of winning poker against how many chips you must put in and the size of the pot.
GOING STRAIGHT
If it would be wise in the circumstances above to fold rather than call, how much wiser would it be if you were thinking of drawing to an ‘inside straight’ one with a gap in the middle, such as ♥ 10, ♠ 9, ♦ 8, ♥ 6, ♣ 2. The odds against you filling are twice as long. How is there ever going to be a pot where there are about 12 times the number of chips in the pot as you need to bet?